汶川和芦山地震前后浅部应力对深部应力的响应及地震危险性分析
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本文为应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项 (编号 ZDJ2019- 20,ZDJ2021- 09,ZDJ2019- 09)和国家自然科学基金项目 (编号41941016,41704086,51878625)联合资助的成果。


Response of shallow geostress to deep geostress and seismic hazard analysis before and after the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes
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    摘要:

    活动断层上盘浅部的高应力异常通常被认为是强震前兆之一,而低应力一般认为不会发生地震是安全的。然而多个震例表明,低应力状态下的地震危险性具有多解性。为进一步探讨强震前的应力异常特征,本研究利用2008年汶川M S8. 0级地震和2013年芦山M S7. 0级地震前的地应力测量结果和地震活动性参数b值,在考虑深部应力对浅部应力影响强度的基础上,建立了浅部应力对深部应力的响应模式,并对强震发生前不同的应力状态与地震危险性的关系进行了讨论。结果表明:活动断层上盘低b值对应浅部高地应力为潜在地震危险区,而对应低地应力则为地震危险性不确定区,需要借助更多的手段进一步确定;2008年汶川M S8. 0级地震前的低应力状态可能反映了区域应力存在较强的调整。本研究对运用断层浅部应力状态评估断层地震危险性具有一定的启示意义。

    Abstract:

    High stresses in the shallow section of the upper part of the active fault are usually considered as stress anomalies prior to the occurrence of strong earthquakes, while low stresses are safe regions. However, several earthquake cases have shown that the seismic hazard in the low- stress state has multiple solutions. To further explore the characteristics of stress anomalies before strong earthquakes, this study uses the ground stress measurements and the b- values of seismic activity parameters before the 2008 Wenchuan MS8. 0 earthquake and the 2013 Lushan MS7. 0 earthquake to establish a model for the response of shallow stress to deep stress, based on the consideration of the intensity of the influence of deep stress on shallow stress, and to investigate the relationship between different stress states before strong earthquakes. The relationship between different stress states and seismic hazard before the occurrence of strong earthquakes is discussed. The results show that: low b- values on the upper plate of the active fault corresponding to shallow high ground stress are potential seismic hazard zones, while those corresponding to low ground stress are seismic hazard uncertainty zones, which need to be confirmed with more studies; the low stress state before the 2008 Wenchuan MS8. 0 earthquake may reflect the existence of strong regional stress adjustment. This study has implications for understanding the shallow stress state of faults to assess the seismic hazard of faults.

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李兵,郭啟良,姜大伟,丁立丰,王建新,许俊闪,王显军.2023.汶川和芦山地震前后浅部应力对深部应力的响应及地震危险性分析[J].地质学报,97(2):339-348.
Li Bing, Guo Qiliang, Jiang Dawei, Ding Lifeng, Wang Jianxin, Xu Junshan, Wang Xianjun.2023. Response of shallow geostress to deep geostress and seismic hazard analysis before and after the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquakes[J]. Acta Geologica Sinica,97(2):339-348.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-06-08
  • 最后修改日期:2021-10-09
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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-12-28
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