Hydrocarbon source rock obviously controls the formation and distribution of hydrocarbon reservoirs. Based on the geological concept of “source control theory”, the concept of a hydrocarbon distribution threshold was put forward. This means the maximum range for hydrocarbon controlled by the source rock conditions to migrate in the hydrocarbon basins. Three quantitative analysis models are proposed on this basis, namely the hydrocarbon accumulation probability, maximum hydrocarbon scale threshold and reserve distribution probability, which respectively refer to the probability of forming a hydrocarbon reservoir, the possible maximum scale of the hydrocarbon reservoir and the percentage of reserve distribution in a certain area within the hydrocarbon distribution threshold. Statistical analysis on 539 hydrocarbon reservoirs discovered in 28 hydrocarbon source kitchens from seven sedimentary basins and sags of eastern China shows the maximum reservoir scale possibly formed in the hydrocarbon basin, hydrocarbon accumulation probability and oil and gas reserve distribution probability are all controlled by the characteristics of the hydrocarbon source rock. Generally, as the distances from the hydrocarbon source rock center and hydrocarbon discharge boundary get longer and the hydrocarbon discharge intensity of hydrocarbon source rock center gets smaller, there will be lower probability of hydrocarbon accumulation. Corresponding quantitative models are established based on single factor statistics and multivariate analysis. Practical application in the Jiyang Depression shows that the prediction from the quantitative analysis model for the hydrocarbon distribution threshold agree well with the actual exploration results, indicating that the quantitative analysis model is likely to be a feasible tool.