Based on a detailed survey of the distribution and organic geochemical characteristics of potential source rocks in the South Slope of the Niuzhuang Sag, Bohai Bay Basin, eastern China, a new approach to assess the amount of hydrocarbons generated and expelled has been developed. The approach is applicable to evaluate hydrocarbons with different genetic mechanisms. The results show that the models for hydrocarbon generation and expulsion vary with potential source rocks, depending on thermal maturity, types of organic matter and paleoenvironment. Hydrocarbons are mostly generated and expelled from source rocks within the normal oil window. It was calculated that the special interval (algal-rich shales of the ES4 member formed in brackish environments) in the South Slope of the Niuzhuang Sag has a much higher potential of immature oil generation than the other intervals in the area. This suggests that hydrocarbons can definitely be generated in early diagenesis, especially under certain special geological settings. The proportion of hydrocarbons generated and expelled from the ES4 shales in the early diagenetic stage is up to 26.75% and 17.36%, respectively. It was also observed that laminated shales have a much higher expulsion efficiency than massive mudstones. In contrast, the special interval of the ES4 shales proposed from previous studies is probably not the whole rock for oil in the South Slope of the Niuzhuang Sag because of the small proportion of the gross volume and corresponding low percentage of hydrocarbons generated and expelled. A much lower expulsion efficiency of the source rock during the early stage relative to that within the normal oil window has been calculated. Our results indicate that the ES4 mudstones rather than the shales deposited in the Niuzhuang and Guangli Sag are the main source rocks for the oil discovered.