Quantitative Analysis of Natural and Human Factors of Oasis Change in the Tail of Shiyang River over the Past 60 Years
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Quantitative Analysis of Natural and Human Factors of Oasis Change in the Tail of Shiyang River over the Past 60 Years
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This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No 2018YFA0606402) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 41601587, 41671187). We thank Elaine Monaghan, BSc(Econ), from Liwen Bianji, Edanz Editing China (www.liwenbianji.cn/ac), for editing the English text of a draft of this manuscript.

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    The human and natural factors complicit in the driving forces of oasis change have always received considerable interest from the international research community. In this study, we used principal component analysis of natural and socio-economic statistical factors to quantitatively analyze the causal relationships and their contributions to the observed periodic expansion or shrinkage of the Minqin Oasis over almost 60 years. Our results show that human factors were the dominant factors governing expansion or shrinkage, with average contributions of 69.38% and 76.16%, respectively. Moreover, policy decisions have been the pivotal human factors. Under the influence of various policies, we have found that water resource utilization, land reclamation, population explosion, ecological protection and economic development have each played leading roles in different periods. This study provides a scientific basis for modelling the dynamics of an oasis for sustainable management.

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CHEN Yong, YANG Guojing, ZHOU Lihua, LIAO Jie, WEI Xuan.2020. Quantitative Analysis of Natural and Human Factors of Oasis Change in the Tail of Shiyang River over the Past 60 Years[J]. ACTA GEOLOGICA SINICA(English edition),94(3):637~645

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  • 收稿日期:2020-02-18
  • 最后修改日期:2020-04-08
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-06-28
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