Karst collapse, caused by natural or artificial abstraction of groundwater, has been a focus of environmentalgeological problems for its ever-increasing hazardousness. The potential erosion theory and vacuum suction erosion theory, which reveal the origin of karst collapse macroscopically, are popularly accepted. However, a mathematic prediction criterion for karst collapse cannot be established only by these two theories. From a new perspective, this paper attempts to explain the microcosmic mechanism of karst collapse on the basis of these two theories. When the shear stress surpasses the shear strength of soil, a certain point or a certain plane in the unconsolidated soil covering karst caves will fail under the mechanical effects of water and air as well as its load-pressure, and with the increase of damaged points, a breaking plane appears and the soil on karst caves is completely damaged; as a result, the karst ground collapses. On the basis of the Mohr-Coulomb failure theory and previous studies, the paper presents a prediction criterion of karst collapse. Finally, by taking, for example, nine typical cases of collapse caused by pumping tests in Guizhou, the paper gives the calculation process of the model and proves its reliability.