地面沉降灾害风险评价研究进展与展望
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本文为中国地质调查局项目(编号:DD20211256、DD20230439)、国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:U2344225)的成果


Review and prospective on land subsidence risk assessment
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    摘要:

    地面沉降是威胁平原和盆地区城市地质安全和可持续发展的重要地质灾害类型之一。地面沉降灾害风险评价尚处于探索阶段。笔者等在总结国内外地面沉降灾害风险评价基本流程的基础上,从易发性、危险性、易损性和风险评价4个方面梳理了当前研究的主要内容和方法,指出当前地面沉降灾害风险评价中存在的主要问题是对易发性、危险性、易损性的内涵尚未形成共识;评价方法以经验驱动的定性评价为主,数据驱动、机制驱动的半定量—定量评价有待加强;对动态风险评价的关注极少。针对地面沉降灾害特点,明确了易发性、危险性、易损性的内涵;提出了结合驱动因素和承灾体变化进行动态风险评价的理念;考虑依据风险评价内容选择评价途径,如危险性评价考虑机制驱动与数据驱动相结合,易损性评价将承灾体属性与国土空间规划相结合;集合以上两类评价结果实现地面沉降动态风险评价。

    Abstract:

    Land subsidence is an important type of geological hazard that threatening the geological safety and sustainable development of urbans in plains and basins, and the related risk assessment is in the initial stage of exploration. This paper sorts out the main contents and technical methods from four aspects of susceptibility, hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment on the basis of summarizing the basic process of land subsidence risk assessment. Furthermore, the paper discusses the main problems in land subsidence risk assessment, which include there is no consensus on the connotation of susceptibility, hazard and vulnerability; the evaluation method is mainly based on the qualitative evaluation of experience-driven, while the semi-quantitative and quantitative evaluation of data-driven and mechanism-driven has not yet formed the mainstream; little attention has been paid to dynamic risk assessment. In view of the characteristics of land subsidence, the paper clarifies the main connotation of each evaluation process and proposes the concept of dynamic risk assessment based on the changes of driving factors and risk elements. Meanwhile, the evaluation approaches are chosen according to contents of risk assessment, such as the combination of mechanism-driven and data-driven approaches for hazard assessment and the combination of risk elements attributes and territorial spatial planning for vulnerability assessment. The dynamic risk assessment of land subsidence can be realized by integrating the above two evaluation results.

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王玢佳,文宝萍,李文鹏,郭海朋,王涛,石菊松,李长青,王海刚,陈添斐.2024.地面沉降灾害风险评价研究进展与展望[J].地质论评,70(2):2024020003,[DOI].
WANG Binjia, WEN Baoping, LI Wenpeng, GUO Haipeng, WANG Tao, SHI Jusong, LI Changqing, WANG Haigang, CHEN Tianfei.2024. Review and prospective on land subsidence risk assessment[J]. Geological Review,70(2):2024020003.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-12-15
  • 最后修改日期:2024-02-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-03-20
  • 出版日期: 2024-03-15