Objectives: The Tarim Basin is a typical superimposed basin with complicated hydrocarbon accumulations, which cannot be readily predicted by using conventional methods. This study aims at carrying out a systematic reservoir distribution threshold analysis on the complicated hydrocarbon reservoirs in the Tarim Basin. Based on the multipleelement matching reservoir formation model, the favorable reservoir formation range and probability of occurrence in the Ordovician target zone in the Tarim Basin in four different reservoir formation periods are predicted.Methods:The distribution threshold theory has been adopted to determine the dominant elements controlling the hydrocarbon distribution. The multipleelement matching reservoirformation method was used. Finally, through application of the new theory, methods and technology, to predict the distribution of oil and gas quantitatively.Results:The reservoirs are mainly controlled by four functional elements, including the distribution of source kitchens (S), facies (D), effective cover layers (C) and low potential areas (P). The oil and gas distribution range of each factor is quantitatively characterized. In addition, we established a model for controlling reservoir, T—CDPXS, which can be used to predict reservoir distribution. Finally, the distribution range of anticline reservoir plays during four accumulation phases were predicted by using T—CDPMS (regional caprock (C)，highquality sedimentary facies (Deposits, D), paleohighs (Mountain, M) and source rock (S)). Results show that, central Tarim, Yingmaili and Lunnan—Halahatang are three favorable regions. Because all the successful wells are within the range of prediction, this method appears to be very effective. Conclusions:As the result shows, the distribution threshold theory can be used to predict the distribution of oil and gas quantitatively in the Tarim Basin, and it has some significant advantages in exploring complex oil and gas systems in superimposed basins.