中国滑坡预测预报研究综述
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Review of Landslide Prediction and Forecast Research in China
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    摘要:

    滑坡预测预报是有效预防滑坡灾害的重要途径之一,这方面的研究不仅受到广泛重视,且硕果累累。将中国滑坡预测预报的研究历史划分为四个阶段:① 经验判断——被动防灾避灾阶段;② 定性——半定量分析预测预报阶段;③ 理论方法探索——检验预测预报阶段;④ 理论方法深化——综合应用预测预报阶段。从监测(观测)方法、预测预报方法,以及研究特点等方面进行简要回顾,总结已有监测方法(手段)、预测预报理论、方法的研究现状,认为尚存在:① 监测方法(手段),包括仪器、设备的精度不足;② 预测预报方法综合性、实用性不强;③ 预测预报专门理论尚待完善等问题。在分析的基础上,提出自己的观点,并进行了发展趋势展望。

    Abstract:

    Landslide prediction and forecast are important ways to prevent effectively landslide failure. The research history of landslide prediction and forecast in China was divided into four stages:①experience judgment — preventing and avoiding failure passively stage;②qualitative — semi quantitative analysis prediction and forecast stage;③theoretical method exploration — testing prediction and forecast stage;④theoretical method deepening and integrative application prediction and forecast stage. Review tersely from monitoring (observation) methods, prediction and forecast methods and the characteristics of research. Sum up the research status quo of monitoring methods (means), the prediction and forecast theories and methods. There are still some problems: ① the accuracy of monitoring methods (means) are inadequate; ② synthesis and practicability of prediction and forecast methods are not effective; ③ prediction and forecast specialized theoretical issues are yet to be perfect. Some viewpoints of the writers are put forward and the development trend is discussed.

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王念秦,王永锋,罗东海,姚勇.2008.中国滑坡预测预报研究综述[J].地质论评,54(3):355-361,[DOI].
.2008. Review of Landslide Prediction and Forecast Research in China[J]. Geological Review,54(3):355-361.

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  • 收稿日期:2007-11-21
  • 最后修改日期:2008-03-30
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