基于不同时间尺度的地质灾害对 气候变化响应研究
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本文为中国地质调查局项目“黄河上游共和段地质灾害发育机理及防治对策研究”(编号1212011220123)的成果。


Study on the Geological Disasters Response to Climate Change in Different Temporal Scales
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    摘要:

    地质灾害对气候变化响应关系是近年来研究的热点和焦点,文章以不同时间尺度的地质灾害为研究对象,开展了不同时间尺度下地质灾害诱发因素与气候变化响应关系研究,认为气候变化及气候变化过程中的温暖湿润期与强降水期往往是地质灾害的高群发期。主要取得了如下认识:万年与千年尺度上,黄河上游地区的5个滑坡集中发育期分别对应于黄土高原马兰黄土中的两层弱发育古土壤层L1 4和L1 2、末次冰期晚期/全新世过渡期、全新世适宜期和现代;百年尺度上,全国地质灾害的高发期响应于中世纪暖期和19世纪晚期的季风强盛期;十年尺度上,全国地质灾害的群发期响应于年均降水量;年际尺度上,地质灾害发生数量与年累计极端降水量有很好的响应关系,反映了气候变化对地质灾害发生的制约关系。月份尺度上,我国崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等突发性地质灾害的发生时间主要集中在每年的雨季,地质灾害的高发时段与各地的雨季具有较好的一致性。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, the relationship of geological disasters triggered factors response to climate change in different temporal scales were been studied. The cluster developments of geological disasters are consistent with the climate change and their warm and humid and heavy rainfall periods. And conclusions are followed: ① There were five phases of centralized development of ancient landslides and old landslides since Late Pleistocene in NE Xizang(Tibet) Plateau, they were 53~49ka BP, 33~24 ka BP,10~8 ka BP, 5~3.5 ka BP and present, their mainly developmental periods were climate change transition and highly warm wet periods. ② The high incidence of geological disasters response to the strong period of the Asian summer monsoon in centennial scales, and 1300~1330 AD and 1820~1850 AD were high prone development of geological disasters that correspond to the Medieval Warm Period and the late 19th century monsoon stronger period. ③ The cluster development of geological disasters in China response to an average annual rainfall in decade scales, and the number of geological disasters are increasing when the higher average annual rainfall years. ④ The number of geological disasters are good consistent with accumulated extreme rainfall on inter annual scales. Extreme climate events was the key factors that induced by the heavy rainfall or continuous precipitation, which caused the collapses and landslides and reflected the constraints of the relationship between climate change and geological disasters. ⑤ Collapses, landslides, debris flows and other sudden geological disasters are mainly concentrated in the annual rainy season in China on monthly scales.

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殷志强,孟晖,连建发,赵无忌.2013.基于不同时间尺度的地质灾害对 气候变化响应研究[J].地质论评,59(6):1110-1117,[DOI].
.2013. Study on the Geological Disasters Response to Climate Change in Different Temporal Scales[J]. Geological Review,59(6):1110-1117.

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  • 收稿日期:2013-04-16
  • 最后修改日期:2013-07-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2013-11-14
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