滑坡监测预警国内外研究现状及评述
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

本文为陕西省自然科学基金面上项目“延安宝塔区地质灾害风险管理研究”(编号2010JM5010);中国地质调查局项目“延安宝塔区地质灾害监测预警示范”(编号1212010740907);中国地质调查局计划项目“西北黄土高原区地质灾害详细调查”(编号1212010640330)的成果。


Landslide Monitoring and Early warning: an Overview
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

单位:
  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    本文从降雨临界值研究、监测技术方法、区域性监测预警系统三个方面对滑坡监测预警的国内外研究现状进行了回顾和总结。首先归纳了国内外28个国家或地区的滑坡降雨临界值及统计方法,三个模型——日降雨量模型、前期降雨量模型和前期土体含水状态模型,基本概括了当前降雨诱发滑坡临界值的确定方法;但由于降雨入渗触发滑坡的复杂性,不同机理的滑坡“需要”不同的降雨临界值;目前的研究趋势是对雨量雨强雨时—土体渗流场动态变化—土体抗剪强度变化的耦合关系进行研究。按监测对象的不同,滑坡监测可分为四大类,即位移监测、物理场监测、地下水监测和外部诱发因素监测;按监测手段的不同,则可分为人工监测、简易监测、专业监测三大类;目前国内外在滑坡监测技术、方法、手段上并无太大差距,专业仪器已成为常规设备,只是由于价格因素得不到普及;一些新技术如InSAR、三维激光扫描等能很快应用到滑坡监测领域;监测数据的采集和传输也都实现了自动化和远程化;监测和预警系统有向Web—GIS发展的趋势。利用一个地区的滑坡易发区划或危险区划,结合降雨临界值,可以设定不同的预警级别,在区内布设一定数量的雨量站,监测雨量加上预报雨量,就可进行滑坡预警预报,国内外的区域性降雨型滑坡监测预警大体都是这个思路和做法,该方法在对公众进行警示方面起到了良好效果,但由于预警的范围太大,在具体的单点防治上,难以做到有效。我国在近10年开展了大量的监测预警工作,并取得了丰硕的成果,但根据统计数据,其成功预警率却并不理想,这一方面表现在成功预警实例中专业预警所占比例过低,另一方面同时表现在发生的大量的地质灾害在已有的预警点之外。制约目前工作有效性的主要问题是滑坡隐患点的排查和识别问题,因为只有识别出了隐患点才能进行下一步的监测和预警,它是一切工作的基础。而解决这一问题的重要途径是分析区域上的滑坡发育规律,找到有效的隐患点识别技术方法,以及引进风险管理的概念,进行监测资源的合理分配和有效预警。

    Abstract:

    Overview the landslide monitoring and early warning researches achievements from three aspects as the rainfall thresholds, monitoring techniques, and regional monitoring and early warning system. Firstly, it summarized the landslide rainfall thresholds of 28 countries or regions in the world including their study or statistic methods. Day rainfall model, antecedent rainfall model and soil moisture content model almost cover all rainfall thresholds calculation methods. On the other hand, due to the complicated water infiltrating and triggering types, different mechanism landslides “need” different thresholds. Study of coupling rainfall to water seepage to soil strength is the trends in the future. The monitoring techniques can be divided into four kinds as the displacement monitoring, physical field monitoring, underground water monitoring, and trigger factors monitoring according to the monitoring objects. It also can be divided into three kinds as manual monitoring, simply equipped monitoring and professional monitoring according to the monitoring devices. At present, the domestic monitoring techniques are closed to foreign countries. Some professional monitoring equipment has become very common. It's limit application only because of the high price. Some new technology such as InSAR, three dimension laser scan can be utilized in the landslide monitoring quickly. The data collecting comes to automatically remote control and monitoring system has a Web—GIS trend. People can design a set of early warning level through combining the susceptibility or hazard zoning map and the rainfall threshold. Installing certain amount of rain gage, plus the forecast rainfall, it can do the landslide early warning then. It is the routine method on regional rain triggered landslide warning whatever domestic or overseas. This kind of early warning played an important role especially on public alert, but it is difficult to warn individual landslide effectively. Landslide monitoring and early warning projects were implemented in China in many places in recent 10 years and got great achievements. But according to the statistic data, the successful warning rate is not so high. One hand is the rate of professional successful alert to total successful alert is very low; another hand is many landslides occurred outside the alerting zone. So the bottleneck problem of restraining the effectiveness of monitoring and early warning is the potential landslides identifying which is the basis of all other measurements. The way to resolve it is to study the landslides regional development regulars to find the effective identifying technology for the potential landslides, and to bring the landslide risk management conception into it, so can distribute the monitoring resources reasonable and to warning effectively.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

唐亚明,张茂省,薛强,毕俊擘.2012.滑坡监测预警国内外研究现状及评述[J].地质论评,58(3):533-541,[DOI].
.2012. Landslide Monitoring and Early warning: an Overview[J]. Geological Review,58(3):533-541.

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期: