With the rapid development of society and economy, the Yellow River delta has been suffering from a widespread land subsidence, which has become one of the major factors affecting the sustainable development of local society and economy. We research the typical land subsidence area Binzhou district, basing on the local monitoring statistics from 2005 to 2019 with a total six subsidence cases, and analyze the pattern and formation mechanism of the territorial subsidence over the years. In accordance with the hydro- geological mechanism of the underground water system in the district and subsidence mechanism, we summarize a local underground water hydro- geological concept model and subsidence model. Based on this model, a three- dimensional numerical model for groundwater exploitation and land subsidence in Binzhou is established. By using the numerical model to calculate, we analyze and study the subsidence and underground water level to forecast and set alarm on subsidence and underground water dynamics, thus to provide guidance to prevent and avoid subsidence in the Yellow River delta.