引用本文：尹海权,郭祥云,常明,占伟,李腊月,徐东卓.2020.跨断层与GPS地壳形变数据联合反演鲜水河断裂地震危险性[J].地质学报,94(8):2487-2499. YIN Haiquan,GUO Xiangyun,CHANG Ming,ZHAN Wei,LI Layue,XU Dongzhuo.2020.Inversion of seismic hazard of the Xianshuihe fault by cross- fault and GPS crustal deformation data[J].Acta Geologica Sinica,94(8):2487-2499.
Abstract:In order to explore the joint inversion effect of GPS and cross- fault crustal deformation data, this paper takes the Xianshuihe fault as the research object. The study analyzed and contrasted the difference between joint inversion result and GPS inversion result and the deformation characteristics and seismic hazard of the Xianshuihe fault zone. The horizontal velocity data of GPS in China from 1999~2007, 2009~2013 and 2013~2017 were used, and the Bayesian inversion procedure was applied to estimate the movement rate of the Xianshuihe fault by using the cross- fault data as a priori condition. We compared individual GPS data inversion results with joint inversion results. It was found that the difference between near- field and far- field rates in the inversion image is more significant after the cross- fault data is added. The rate of fault activity varies significantly in different periods, especially during the deformation adjustment process after the Wenchuan earthquake. However, the effect of this method for pre- seismic is not obvious, especially the reverse strike- slip characteristics of part of cross- fault sites before the Wenchuan earthquake are difficult to show, and it is difficult to play a dominant role in earthquake prediction. But in general the analysis of fusion inversion analysis can be more intuitive to reflect the difference in velocity between the fault in the near and far fields. Finally, according to the above research method, after the Wenchuan earthquake, the left- lateral strike- slip rate has basically recovered to the pre- earthquake state by years of stress adjustment, and the southern section of the Xianshuihe fault continues to stretch. The clockwise rotation of the Sichuan- Yunnan block continues to strengthen. In addition, the Daofu section and the Moxi section of the Xianshuihe fault are at a certain slip- rate loss. It is necessary to pay attention to the seismic hazard and the correlation of earthquake risk in these two areas.