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跨断层与GPS地壳形变数据联合反演鲜水河断裂地震危险性
投稿时间:2019-10-25  修订日期:2020-01-18  点此下载全文
引用本文:
DOI:10.19762/j.cnki.dizhixuebao.2020055
摘要点击次数: 100
全文下载次数: 107
作者单位E-mail
尹海权) 中国地震局第一监测中心 742946697@qq.com 
郭祥云) 中国地震局地球物理研究所  
常明) 中国地震局第一监测中心  
占伟) 中国地震局第一监测中心  
李腊月) 中国地震局第一监测中心  
徐东卓) 中国地震局第一监测中心  
中文摘要:本研究为了探索GPS和跨断层地壳形变数据联合反演效果,以鲜水河断裂为研究对象,分析对比了联合反演结果和GPS单独反演结果的区别,并对鲜水河断裂带的形变特征以及地震危险性进行了分析。本研究利用1999-2007期,2009-2013期和2013-2017期中国大陆GPS水平速度场数据,使用贝叶斯反演程序,以跨断层数据为先验条件,估算了川滇菱形块体东边界(主要为鲜水河断裂)的断裂运动速率,并对比了单独的GPS数据反演结果以及联合反演结果。发现增加跨断层数据后,反演图像中近场和远场速率区别更加显著,不同期次的断层活动速率变化明显,尤其是在汶川地震后的形变调整过程中。但是,本方法在震前效果并不明显,尤其是在汶川地震前部分跨断层场地的逆向走滑特征很难表现出来,对于地震预测预报也很难起到优势作用,但总的来说从反演效果上来看,将两者数据融合反演分析,可以更直观的反映断层在近场和远场上的速率差异。最终根据上述研究方法认为鲜水河断裂带在汶川地震后,经过多年的应力调整,目前左旋走滑速率已经基本恢复到震前状态,鲜水河断裂南段持续拉张趋势,川滇菱形块体的顺时针旋转作用持续加强,另外,鲜水河断裂的道孚段和磨西段存均在一定的走滑速率亏损,应该注意这两个地区的地震危险性,以及这两个地区地震危险的关联性。
中文关键词:鲜水河断裂  跨断层  GPS  数据融合  断裂活动性
 
Inversion of seismic hazard of Xianshuihe fault by cross-fault and GPS crustal deformation data
Author NameAffiliationE-mail
YIN Haiquan) First Crust Monitoring and Application Center,CEA 742946697@qq.com 
GUO Xiangyun) China Earthquake Administration,CEA  
Chang Ming) First Crust Monitoring and Application Center,CEA  
Zhan Wei) First Crust Monitoring and Application Center,CEA  
LI Layue) First Crust Monitoring and Application Center,CEA  
XU Dongzhuo) First Crust Monitoring and Application Center,CEA  
Abstract:In order to explore the joint inversion effect of GPS and cross-fault crustal deformation data, this paper takes Xianshuihe fault as the research object, analyzed and contrasted the difference between joint inversion result and GPS inversion result and the deformation characteristics and seismic hazard of the Xianshuihe fault zone are analyzed. In this study, the horizontal velocity data of GPS in China from 1999-2007, 2009-2013 and 2013-2017 are used, and the Bayesian inversion procedure is used to estimate the movement rate of the Xianshuihe fault by using the cross-fault data as a priori condition. We compared individual GPS data inversion results with joint inversion results. It is found that the difference between near-field and far-field rates in the inversion image is more significant after the cross-fault data is added. The rate of fault activity varies significantly in different periods, especially during the deformation adjustment process after the Wenchuan earthquake. However, the effect of this method before the earthquake is not obvious, especially the reverse strike-slip characteristics of some cross-fault sites before the Wenchuan earthquake are difficult to show, and it is difficult to play a dominant role in earthquake prediction, but in general From the perspective of inversion effect, the data fusion inversion analysis can reflect the difference of the velocity of the fault in the near and far fields more intuitively. However, the effect of this method for pre-seismic is not obvious, especially the reverse strike-slip characteristics of part of cross-fault sites before the Wenchuan earthquake are difficult to show, and it is difficult to play a dominant role in earthquake prediction, but in general the analysis of fusion inversion analysis can be more intuitive to reflect the difference in velocity between the fault in the near and far fields. Finally, according to the above research method, after the Wenchuan earthquake, the left-lateral strike-slip rate has basically recovered to the pre-earthquake state by years of stress adjustment, and the southern section of the Xianshuihe fault continues to stretch. The clockwise rotation of the Sichuan-Yunnan block continues to strengthen. In addition, the Daofu section and the Moxi section of the Xianshuihe fault are at a certain slip-rate loss. It is necessary to pay attention to the seismic hazard in these two areas and the correlation of earthquake risk in these two areas.
keywords:the Xianshuihe Fault  Cross-fault  GPS  Data fusion  Fault activity
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